2010 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued/Undervalued Players

Every fantasy sports draft is about being able to detect value better than your competitors. The ability to snag a player a few rounds after his end-of-year numbers dictate is the key that can set up a team for a playoff run. Fantasy baseball 2010 will kickoff my seasonal Over/Under series in which I will indicate which players I think are worth being drafted over/under their average draft positions.

Undervalued

Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds

Despite missing 21 games last year, Votto posted impressive totals. His 2009 line was 82-25-84-4-.321, and his NL ranks were 4th and 3rd, respectively, in OBP and OPS. His career BAbip (Batting Average on Balls in Play) is .349, indicating that he consistently makes solid contact and has the ability to control (to an extent) where he hits the ball. To further validate his excellent bat control is the fact that about 78% of his hits are up the middle or to the opposite field. Therefore, the increasingly popular “shift” that is being employed against left-handed power-hitting first basemen would prove ineffective against this 26 year old stud.

2010 Projections:

Runs	HR	RBI	STL	AVG
102	33	117	8	.309

Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves

Martin Prado is a player that will fall to the late rounds in most drafts, but his versatility should ensure him a better fate. As the starting second baseman of the Braves, Prado looks to continue his surprisingly consistent performance that he showed in 2009. In 2008, he logged 228 ABs with a .320 average, making claim that his .307 average from last year was not a fluke. His positional flexibility will improve the depth of any fantasy roster.

2010 Projections:

Runs	HR	RBI	STL	AVG
89	13	78	9	.293

Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox

Beckham supplanted Josh Fields in 2009 at third base, showing evidence that he himself will not be a bust. Now as the starting second baseman of the White Sox, he will continue to justify why he was the 8th overall selection in the 2008 entry draft. In current fantasy drafts, he is being taken around the 11th round. The likes of Michael Young, Ian Stewart, and Chipper Jones are going ahead of him. Beckham carries around significantly less risk than these players and has the upside of a young All-Star.

2010 Projections:

Runs	HR	RBI	STL	AVG
84/td>	28	95	17	.267

Adam Dunn – Washington Nationals

Adam Dunn is one of the most consistent power hitters in the game. He is being drafted around the sixth or seventh round, about 50 picks after Kevin Youkilis. The stats don’t justify this fact, especially if you’re in a league that uses OBP. Dunn hits more home runs, drives in more runs, and scores about the same amount of runs. Moreover, Dunn has proven that he can hit for power in any ballpark he calls home.

2010 Projections:

Runs	HR	RBI	STL	AVG
85	36	109	1	.257

Jair Jurrjens – Atlanta Braves

It’s unfathomable that Jair Jurrjens, who finished 2009 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, currently has an ADP of 126.2. No, he’s not going to make a run at 200 Ks, but he certainly is not deficient enough in this category to let him fall to the tenth round. In addition, his splits against left-handed hitters shouldn’t scare anybody away. The only factor that should be influencing his draft status at this point is that he has minor inflammation in his shoulder. However, he is projected to be ready for the beginning of the season.

2010 Projections:

Wins	Strikeouts	ERA	WHIP
16	173	3.24	1.29

Cliff Lee – Seattle Mariners

If you disregard his relatively slow start last season, Cliff Lee performed almost as well as he did in 2008. His post-break ERA and WHIP were 2.92 and 1.07, respectively. Likewise, Lee’s dominance in the postseason should not be understated. His willingness to be the most trusted pitcher in big games will likewise pay dividends for the Mariners and any fantasy owner that decides to make him their ace.

2010 Projections:

Wins	Strikeouts	ERA	WHIP
18	172	3.04	1.17

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Overvalued

Mark Reynolds – Arizona Diamondbacks

In the final 19 games of 2009, Mark Reynolds put up this line: 8-2-5-0-.143. He is too undisciplined of a hitter to rely on for an entire season. There are going to be stretches where he will cripple fantasy rosters for weeks at a time. Reynolds will be a good source for HRs and RBIs, but there are plenty of players that guarantee this luxury without the unnecessary risks associated with the all time single season strikeout king.

2010 Projections:

Runs	HR	RBI	STL	AVG
77	36	90	16	.242

Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins

Mauer may be the most argued about player going into drafts. There is no doubting his overall greatness, but for where you are going to have to draft him this year, there will be better options. Mauer has never achieved 100 runs or 100 RBIs in his career and his 28 HRs from last year are currently an outlier. Prior to 2009, Mauer had only reached a double digit home run total once in his career. In order to get him, you will have to spend a first round pick. There are plentiful alternatives in the first round that offer much higher upside than Mauer.

2010 Projections:

Runs	HR	RBI	STL	AVG
85	17	90	5	.326

Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox

Youkilis is a good player, but his 29.5 ADP is too steep a price considering what alternatives will be available at this point in the draft. Joey Votto, Pablo Sandoval, and Ryan Zimmerman are three players that will be drafted around the same time that have higher ceilings without having to sacrifice lower floors.

2010 Projections:

Runs	HR	RBI	STL	AVG
87	24	94	5	.286

Javier Vazquez – New York Yankees

For anyone that is familiar with Vazquez’s inconsistent career, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. The last time he pitched with the Yankees, he floundered to the tune of a 4.91 ERA. In fact, Vazquez has struggled mightily as an AL pitcher, and his new residence is blatantly unforgiving to mistakes given up to left-handed hitters. He will provide useful strikeout and win totals, but the tradeoff is not worth the investment.

2010 Projections:

Wins	Strikeouts	ERA	WHIP
16	190	4.45	1.39

Note: Current average draft positions are taken from Yahoo!