2010 Fantasy Football Impact Rookies: Running Backs

Rookie Running Backs | Rookie Wide Receivers

Positional Rankings:
QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF

Ryan Mathews (San Diego) – ADP: 2nd Round, 10th RB

Mathews is widely considered to be the rookie that will produce the most useful fantasy statistics in 2010. The reason for this assumption is that Mathews has landed on an offense that has been explosive in recent years, and in the process yielding opportunities for its running backs to be successful. Mathews is in line to be the featured back in San Diego, as the only other running back on their depth chart with any relevant experience is Darren Sproles who, with his undersized stature, isn’t capable of shouldering a large amount of carries. The Chargers, boasting a solid offensive line coupled with an elite quarterback in Rivers, have been one of the top scoring teams over the past two years, ranking fourth in the NFL with 28.4 points-per-game last season and second with 27.4 points-per game in 2008. Therefore, there will be plenty of occasions where Mathews will get carries inside the red zone and at the goal line. Target Mathews in the late second to early third round with the expectation that he will be a solid RB2.
2010 Projection: 243 att-1074 rush yards-32 rec-213 rec yards-9 total TD

C.J. Spiller (Buffalo) – ADP: 7th Round, 33rd RB

With the overabundance of running backs the Bills have employed for the upcoming season, there is no surprise that people have been voicing skepticism over C.J. Spiller’s fantasy prospects. Fred Jackson rushed for 1,062 yards, averaging 4.5 yards-per-carry in 2009, and at the minimum guaranteed himself 180 carries in 2010. However, Spiller was the most talented running back to be drafted and will surely force Chan Gailey to implement him in the offense more than as a third-down or big play back as some have suggested he would be. One aspect of the game that Spiller can automatically claim proficiency over all other Bills running backs is being a receiver out of the backfield. Spiller totaled over 500 receiving yards in his senior season at Clemson, and when given room to maneuver, has proven that he is as quick and elusive as anyone. Expect Spiller to touch the ball 13-16 times a game, making him a commodity to target in the middle rounds as a RB3 or RB4.
2010 Projection: 191 att-876 rush yards-43 rec-378 rec yards-6 total TD

Jahvid Best (Detroit) – ADP: 4th Round, 22nd RB

The Lions haven’t had much success with the run game over the past few seasons, so to remedy their recent blunders they went out and drafted Jahvid Best with the 30th pick in the first round. Kevin Smith has stringed together two mediocre seasons as a pro and is probably being given his last chance as a starter. Unfortunately, Smith is coming off surgery to repair an ACL tear, so there is concern as to whether he will be fully prepared for the start of the season. If Smith proves healthy by Week 1, a straight platoon very well could be enforced by Jim Schwartz, diminishing Best’s value. But even if carries end up being split, the speed and big play ability of Best will force Schwartz to keep him on the field enough to where he would have value. Expect Best to be given the opportunity to become the starter, making him an intriguing story to follow throughout the preseason.
2010 Projection: 198 att-803 rush yards-38 rec-353 rec yards-6 total TD

Montario Hardesty (Cleveland) – ADP: 9th Round, 43rd RB

UPDATE: Hardesty has torn his ACL and is now out for the 2010 season. Hardesty is a dark horse pick to become one of the top offensive rookies in 2010, and as a result, has become a trendy sleeper in fantasy circles. Hardesty finds himself in a favorable position to succeed in his rookie season as he will be running behind an expertly assembled offensive line. However, there are some obvious obstacles Hardesty must overcome before he gets the chance to put up relevant numbers. First, Jerome Harrison finished the 2009 season strong and will start the preseason as the top back on the depth chart. But more importantly, Hardesty twisted his knee early on in training camp; a development that, although considered minor, could set him back in his progress. But despite the uphill challenge he must overcome, Hardesty is still being considered a legitimate candidate to win the starting running back job. Whether he begins the season as the starter or backup, Hardesty will be a valuable fantasy commodity, as he is the more sturdy back that is better suited for goal line carries. Hardesty’s situation is one of the most intriguing out of all rookies and should be closely monitored as the preseason progresses.
2010 Projection: 213 att-1001 rush yards-23 rec-189 rec yards-10 total TD

Ben Tate (Houston) – ADP: 7th Round, 30th RB

UPDATE: Tate broke his ankle and is out for the 2010 season. Ben Tate was drafted late in the second round to add some much needed depth to an ailing Texans backfield. Both Steve Slaton and Arian Foster were benched in 2009 due to reoccurring fumbling problems and general ineffectiveness. Having missed most of Houston’s organized team activities in the offseason, Tate will begin the preseason as the Texans’ third running back on the depth chart. It will most likely be at least a handful of games into the season before Tate is even given a chance to redeem himself, if at all. Only if Tate is available in the last rounds of your draft will he be worth taking a chance on. Otherwise, let someone else overdraft him in the seventh round where he is currently being taken.
2010 Projection: 116 att-462 rush yards-13 rec-83 rec yards-2 total TD