2010 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players

Undervalued Players and Sleepers

DeSean Jackson (PHI) – ADP: 3rd Round, 10th WR

Completely disregarding his back issue, which is only being categorized as day-to-day, DeSean Jackson is receiving undue gratitude when it comes to fantasy drafts. Jackson is the type of receiver that scores the vast majority of his touchdowns off big plays. Appropriately, seven of Jackson’s nine receiving touchdowns were of at least 35 yards in 2009. It’s just too difficult to consistently mount touchdown totals of large proportions when the only way you can score is from long range, especially when the Eagles have developed several other options through the air. Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek are both polished pass-catchers who are bigger, more aggressive targets to throw to in the end zone. Jackson, with his petite frame, will not be able to contend with his counterparts when it comes to looks around the goal line.

2010 Projections:

Cedric Benson (CIN) – ADP: 3rd Round, 14th RB

Risk has always been a major factor when evaluating the prospects of players in fantasy, and while every player carries injury risk to some extent, some players bring to the table various unnecessary risks. Cedric Benson is one of those players. Benson’s checkered history with the Bears shouldn’t simply be discounted due to his successful debut season with the Bengals. Benson has shown that he has trouble coping with situations in which he is not featured prominently. And with the Bengals’ receiving core now consisting of Terrell Owens, Chad Ochocinco, and Antonio Bryant, satisfying everybody’s quench for the ball will be difficult. Not to mention that Bernard Scott has emerged as a very capable backup. In the two games Benson missed due to injury in 2009, Scott filled in effectively, showcasing a slightly more expansive and explosive skill set than Benson. Taking all of these factors into consideration, and also the fact that Benson only produced six touchdowns in 2009 (none of which came beyond Week 9), drafting such players as Pierre Thomas, LeSean McCoy, or Beanie Wells in the third round would be a more logical choice.

2010 Projections:

Joseph Addai (IND) – ADP: 4th Round, 21st RB

Paying solely for touchdowns from the previous year is a strategy that usually causes problems throughout the season for fantasy owners. Joseph Addai is good example of a player that benefited from his team’s ability to consistently produce opportunities inside the five-yard line. Aside from the 13 touchdowns he amassed, Addai eclipsed the 4.0 yards per carry mark in only seven games last season and finished the season ranked 22nd in the league with 828 rushing yards. An additional factor that contributed to Addai’s artificially high fantasy totals is the fact that Donald Brown wasn’t prepared for the NFL’s standard of play in his rookie year. Brown started the season slowly, rushing for only 212 yards in his first six games before sustaining a chest injury that sidelined him for five games. Now that he has a full season’s worth of experience under his belt, Brown will be utilized more prominently in all areas of the field, leaving less opportunities for Addai to put up useful numbers.

2010 Projections:

Sidney Rice (MIN) – ADP: 3rd Round, 13th WR

Sidney Rice is currently being drafted in comparable spots as Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, both Steve Smiths, and Michael Crabtree. Considering the uncertainty surrounding the Viking’s passing game, the aforementioned receivers are more reliable options in the third round. But even if Favre is under center in Week 1, there are still some misgivings about Rice’s situation. In 2009, Bernard Berrian was hampered by a lingering hamstring injury that slowed him down and reduced the number of snaps he was given. With Berrian back at full health, he should get more looks down the field. But more importantly, it is anticipated that Percy Harvin will become one of the focal points of the offense. Harvin proved to be the most versatile athlete on the team last season, furthering his chances of seeing an expanded role in the future. With Rice battling an ailing hip in training camp that initially designated him to the PUP list, it’s hard to believe that he will produce numbers congruent with his current ADP.

2010 Projections:

Ricky Williams (MIA) – ADP: 6th Round, 29th RB

There are numerous running backs who are being drafted a round or two later than Ricky Williams who carry more upside with them. Williams was impressive last year up to a certain point in which he broke down. Compiling only 66 yards on 22 carries and no touchdowns in the Dolphins’ final two games, Ricky’s heavy workload seemed to have caught up with him. Entering the 2010 season at age 33, there has to be worries he might have reached the point where running backs fall off the cliff. Furthermore, Williams’ 2009 totals can be primarily attributed to Ronnie Brown’s injury that kept him out of the final seven games of the season. With Brown back and supposedly 100% healthy, the makings of a full-blown timeshare look to be in place, significantly devaluing the price of Williams. Running backs to target in the sixth and seventh rounds that have more potential are Jerome Harrison, C.J. Spiller, Michael Bush, and Clinton Portis.

2010 Projections:

Pierre Garçon (IND) – ADP: 6th Round, 25th WR

Judging by Pierre Garcon’s current ADP, one would think that he put up consistent fantasy numbers in 2009, but that’s not the case. Let me list the players on the Colts alone who accumulated more receptions than Garcon: Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Joseph Addai. There are simply too many quality options for Peyton Manning to spread the ball around to for Garcon to make an impact on a consistent basis. And with the return of Anthony Gonzalez, Garcon will have to compete to earn the starting receiver position opposite Reggie Wayne. At most, Garcon will end up being a solid match-up play and spot-starter, a role that doesn’t justify where he is currently being taken in drafts.

2010 Projections:

ADP information courtesy of www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com