2010 Fantasy Football Undervalued Players

Overvalued Players

Every fantasy sports draft is about being able to detect value better than your competitors. The ability to snag a player a few rounds after his end-of-year numbers dictate is the key that can set up a team for a playoff run. The following players have the potential to provide their owners with numbers that exceed their ADP (Average Draft Position).

Hakeem Nicks (NYG) – ADP: 5th Round, 23rd WR

Many felt that the Giants landed a steal in the 2009 draft when Hakeem Nicks fell to them with the 29th pick. Nicks, a 6’1” 215 lb. speed receiver, wasn’t able to take full advantage of his opportunity out of the gate, as he sprained his left foot in the first game of the season. Additionally, Nicks made it known after the season that he had played the entire season with a broken toe. But now that his toe surgery is out of the way, Nicks can focus on developing his chemistry with Eli Manning who accomplished a career high in both passing yards and touchdowns in 2009. Nicks is both the Giants’ most physically imposing receiver and their biggest home run threat, so he should end up being Manning’s preferred target around the goal line. Furthermore, Nicks doesn’t carry as much risk as Mike Sims-Walker, Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson, and other receivers who are being drafted in comparable spots.

2010 Projections:

Alex Smith (SF) – ADP: 11th Round, 18th QB

The formerly much maligned Alex Smith will begin 2010 in the best situation he has ever found himself as a pro. The 49ers have established continuity at all of their skill positions and in their coaching staff, so Smith will be able to approach 2010 with a stable and assuring outlook. Having already instituted a solid rapport with tight end Vernon Davis last season, Smith now has the opportunity to develop his on-field relationship with second year receiver Michael Crabtree. Not to mention Frank Gore is a distinguished pass-catcher out of the backfield that can bail Smith out of highly pressurized situations. Comparing the stats of Alex Smith and Joe Flacco in the last 7 games of 2009,

Smith: 1,542 yards-12 TD-6 INT
Flacco: 1,414 yards-9 TD-5 INT

There is no reason why Flacco should be drafted, on average, four rounds ahead of Smith. And this goes for other quarterbacks such as Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer. The price of Alex Smith is that of a backup, and the potential upside is that of a consistent starter. He’s worth the investment.

2010 Projections:

Chris “Beanie” Wells (ARZ) – ADP: 4th Round, 18th RB

Beanie Wells was one of the top prospects at running back to be drafted in 2009. Wells didn’t get an abundance of chances to showcase his talents, but when he did get the opportunities, he impressed. There were six games in which Wells received at least 14 carries, and in those six games he averaged 5.2 yards per carry and totaled 7 touchdowns. With the Cardinals transitioning from Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart, the running game should become more of a priority on offense. Another factor that will enforce the importance of the running game is the Cardinals’ sturdy offensive line. The addition of Alan Faneca will supplement Levi Brown and Deuce Lutui to form a line that shoulders a solid balance of skill, size, and experience. Tim Hightower has proven his inability to be an every down back with a career 3.4 yards per carry average, so he won’t be put in a position to steal carries away from Wells. Draft Beanie with the expectation that he will receive about 20 touches per game and provide value in the late 1st to early 2nd round range.

2010 Projections:

Jonathan Stewart (CAR) – ADP: 4th Round, 19th RB

Stewart flourished in the second half of 2009, showing that he can be an elite back when given the opportunity to be featured in the offense. Of course, DeAngelo Williams is still in town, but he is coming off ankle surgery that caused him to miss the majority of the final five games of 2009. But even assuming Williams remains healthy this season, Stewart still has plenty of upside. Stewart tallied 10 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, so there is no reason to believe that he won’t at least replicate that production again in 2010. It seems that John Fox has made a conscious effort to feature Stewart around the goal line more, as he ranked 7th in the league in 2009 with 16 carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. This trend should continue into 2010 considering Stewart’s body is better suited in short-yardage situations. Overall, Stewart’s floor is fairly high (certainly higher than LeSean McCoy, Cedric Benson, and Pierre Thomas), and his ceiling is that of a second round value.

2010 Projections:

Zach Miller (OAK) – ADP: 11th Round, 12th TE

It seems like every year Zach Miller is being treated as a sleeper at the tight end position. And considering he has somewhat fallen out of favor in drafts this year, there is an opportunity to buy him at a great value. With the acquisition of Jason Campbell at quarterback, the Raiders finally have a facilitator who can distribute the ball to their best playmakers, and I don’t think anybody would argue that Zach Miller isn’t Oakland’s best playmaker. Furthermore, it is well documented that Jason Campbell loves his tight ends. In the three seasons in which Campbell was the Redskins’ primary starter, Washington’s starting tight ends averaged 75 catches, 825 yards, and 5 touchdowns per season. Those numbers certainly don’t project to be the 12th tight end taken off the board. Considering Oakland lacks a major threat at wide receiver, Zach Miller should be drafted with confidence that he will be one of the most consistence producers at his position in 2010.

2010 Projections:

2010 Projection: 77 rec-903 yards-8 TD

Cleveland’s Backfield:
Jerome Harrison ADP: 6th Round, 30th RB
Montario Hardesty ADP: 9th Round, 40th RB

UPDATE: Hardesty has torn his ACL and is out for the 2010 season. The Browns are primed to become one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Their offensive line reads (from left to right): Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, Alex Mack, Floyd Womack, Tony Pashos. This line consists of a blend of players who are dependable veterans and players who are young and hungry. At the quarterback position, it’s humorous to think that the addition of Jake Delhomme is an upgrade for the Browns, as he has proven that his range is limited through the air. Therefore, if the Browns wish to stay competitive in most of their games, they will have to establish the run with authority. Although it hasn’t been determined exactly how Harrison and Hardesty will be utilized yet, it can be assumed, at least initially, that Harrison will get the touches on first and second down and Hardesty will receive the short-yardage and goal line carries. Of course, it is within the realm of possibility that one these backs will end up receiving the bulk of the carries in the long run. But whether they remain in a straight platoon or one of them emerges as the featured back, both of them should be regarded on draft day at their attractive values.

Sleepers

The following is a list of players that are widely being ignored in standard 12-team formats but have the potential to be useful match-up plays throughout the season. If these players go undrafted in your league, their performance should be monitored early on.

Earl Bennett, WR (CHI)

Often forgotten in the Bears’ unpredictable receiving core is Cutler’s old college buddy at Vanderbilt. With Mike Martz in town, any receiver on the depth chart is a breakout candidate, and it seems that Bennett’s presence has been widely neglected in fantasy circles.

Brian Robiskie, WR (CLE)

Robiskie was Cleveland’s second round pick in 2009, and despite only accumulating 7 catches last year, he hasn’t quite fallen out of favor yet. Robiskie’s lack of development can be attributed to the Browns’ inconsistency and ineptness at quarterback last year. In addition, Mike Holmgren noted in a recent interview that Robiskie is a player that he thinks has a legitimate shot at breaking out in 2010.

Sammie Stroughter, WR (TB)

Stroughter’s stats weren’t that impressive as a rookie in 2009, but he clearly earned the trust of Josh Freeman. Stroughter will primarily be used as the slot reeiver for the Bucs, giving Freeman a safety valve on third down and around the goal line. Stroughter is sure-handed, so for him it’s only a matter of opportunity.

Bernard Scott, RB (CIN)

Envisioning Cedric Benson having back-to-back productive seasons is a hard thing to do. Whether it is injury, stubbornness, or mental incompetence, Benson brings a myriad of risks to the table. Therefore, Bernard Scott could conceivably end up with a useful amount of carries, and he proved last year with two straight 85+ yard games that he can carry the load if needed.

ADP information courtesy of www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com