2010 NFC South Preview

Divisional Previews

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Atlanta Falcons

Head Coach: Mike Smith (3rd Season)
2009 Record: 9-7

Offense

For the Falcons, the success of the offense rests solely on the running game, which in turn is reliant on the offensive line. Fortunately for Michael Turner and Matt Ryan, the offensive line has matured into one of the most tight-knit units in the league. With three-fifths of the line having been originally drafted by the Falcons (LT Sam Baker in ’08, LG Justin Blalock in ’07, and C Todd McClure in ’99) and the all five members having played together for the past two years, the stability is showing on the field and in the statistics. The Falcons accounted for 1,876 total rushing yards and 4.2 yards-per-carry in 2009, which isn’t bad considering their All-Pro running back from 2008 essentially missed six games due to an ankle injury.

The passing game is one that prides itself on efficiency and limiting mistakes, and Atlanta employs the ideal quarterback to carry out these duties. Matt Ryan, although his production tailed off during the second half of last season, has proven he can handle just about any situation he is put in. Furthermore, Ryan now has the experience to where he can be expected to, at times, take full control of the offense and win a few games with his ability alone. Relieving some of the pressure that Ryan will have to face is the fact that he has two premier pass-catching targets at his disposal. Tony Gonzalez at tight end has solidified himself as the most proficient player at his position in history, and Roddy White is coming off his third straight 1,000-yard season in which he also set a career high in touchdowns with 11. The Falcons’ depth at receiver isn’t anything to write home about, but their more dangerous options are enough of a threat to keep defenses honest.

Defense

The most impressive aspect of the Falcons’ defense is their combination of youth and experience up front. Defensive tackles Jonathan Babineaux and Peria Jerry are both homegrown draftees who will essentially be playing beside each other for the first time since Jerry missed all but two games of his rookie season in 2009. And while Babineaux and Jerry are initiating pressure through the A-gaps, defensive ends Jamaal Anderson and John Abraham will have room to maneuver on the edges, forcing pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Abraham regressed in 2009, registering only 5.5 sacks, but he has proven to be a tireless worker throughout his career and should revert back to his mean of around double digit sacks.

Contrary to the much-hyped front seven of Atlanta’s defense, the secondary is a unit that has been much criticized in recent years. The Falcons suffered against the pass last season, ranking 28th in the NFL while surrendering 241.9 yards-per-game. Further detracting from their quality of play is the fact that they gave up a detestable 55 passing plays of at least 20 yards and 11 passing plays of at least 40 yards. Therefore, to fix their recent blunders, the front office signed former first-round cornerback Dunta Robinson. Robinson will team up with Christopher Owens as the other starting corner to attempt to solidify the secondary and round out an otherwise complete defense.

Fantasy sleeper: Harry Douglas
Douglas’ name has pretty much been forgotten due to his stint on IR for the entirety of 2009. However, Douglas remains the second most talented receiver on Atlanta’s depth chart and, given the opportunity, could become a viable option for Matt Ryan in the passing game.

Biggest question for the 2010 Falcons: Can Dunta Robinson become the shutdown cornerback the team needs to make their secondary respectable?

Season Prediction: 11-5, 1st NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Head Coach: Sean Payton (5th Season)
2009 Record: 13-3, Super Bowl XLIV Champions

Offense

Endearing themselves to local enthusiasts and distant enemies alike, Drew Brees and Sean Payton defined their legacies in the league when they reached the pinnacle of the sport, a Super Bowl victory. The Saints’ offense was the most exciting to watch throughout the course of 2009, captivating audiences with their numerous gadget plays and unorthodox methods. Leading the league in both points-per-game with 31.9 and total yards-per-game in 403.8 all the while coasting into the playoffs with a 13-3 record and securing the first seed in the NFC characterized one of the greatest offensive showcases the NFL has ever seen. Unfortunately for those who bleed black and gold, past success doesn’t guarantee future results. In fact, from 2000-2009, Super Bowl champions have averaged only 9.2 wins in their following season. Thus, the success of the 2010 Saints hinges on their ability to stave off complacency.

Head coach Sean Payton was a mastermind play caller in 2009, and Drew Brees was the perfect administrator to run the show. Brees distributed the ball to all his weapons fairly, leading to the fact that four players eclipsed the 500 yards receiving mark. The receiver that finally realized his first-round potential was third-year man Robert Meachem. Meachem emerged as Brees’ go-to target down the field, evidenced by his 16.0 yards-per-reception and nine touchdown receptions. With the full array of receivers returning for the 2010 campaign, the Saints’ passing game should come close to duplicating its success from a year ago.

The Saints’ running game became somewhat of an afterthought last season compared to the spectacle that was the passing game. Nevertheless, Saints running backs combined to rank sixth in the league in rushing yards-per-game and provided enough support to allow the passing game to open up. Mike Bell led the team in rushes but has since departed for Philadelphia via free agency. Bell was Sean Payton’s back of choice at the goal line on most occasions and will leave a void that was expected to be filled by incumbent Lynell Hamilton. However, Hamilton injured his right knee during training camp and will miss the entire season. Expect to see Reggie Bush shoulder a larger role than he has in the past, as he finally began to fully immerse himself in the offense during the Saints’ Super Bowl run.

Defense

While the offense excelled at every aspect of the game in 2009, it’s hard to believe they didn’t bail out the defense on many occasions. The defense as a whole became known for its timely splash plays rather than its unified consistency. And the biggest instigator of the splash plays, Darren Sharper, is currently on the physically unable to perform list and is doubtful to make a significant contribution to the team this season. While the rest of the secondary remains intact, Sharper’s leadership will surely be missed and might lead to frequent breakdowns in coverage.

Alex Brown was brought in in the offseason with the intention of replacing Charles Grant. While Brown could potentially bolster their pass rush, it should be known that he has failed to amass more than six sacks in his past three seasons and he was never much help against the run to begin with. At linebacker, longtime fan-favorite Scott Fujita has departed via free agency, and his absence will further impair the overall leadership of the defense. Overall, the most important player on each unit of the defense from last season (Charles Grant on the line, Fujita at linebacker, and Sharper in the secondary) will all be missing from the team in 2010, more than likely causing significant misgivings throughout the season.

Fantasy sleeper: Reggie Bush
After years of fantasy disappointment, Bush finally became an integral part of the Saints’ offense towards the end of the 2009 season and into the playoffs. If Bush can remain an essential part of Sean Payton’s scheme, his explosiveness could make him a weekly fantasy starter.

Biggest question for the 2010 Saints: Can the offensive line give Drew Brees enough time to work his magic again?

Season Prediction: 8-8, 2nd NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For a more comprehensive preview of the 2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, click here.

Carolina Panthers

Head Coach: John Fox (9th Season)
2009 Record: 8-8

Offense

Considering the enormous talent the Carolina Panthers have retained at running back, it is no surprise that head coach John Fox has allowed the running game to monopolize the offensive production over the past two seasons. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart make for the scariest one-two punch in the league and, barring injury, that won’t change this season. Much of Williams’ and Stewart’s past success can be attributed to sturdy play from the offensive line. And while the line has carried over four out of five starters from a year ago, 2009 starting guard Keydrick Vincent was lost in free agency and will replaced on the right side by Mackenzy Bernadeau.

The quarterback situation for Carolina has drastically changed compared to this time last year. Gone is the franchise’s most recognizable quarterback in Jake Delhomme, and his replacement, second-round selection Jimmy Clausen, is the team’s hopeful long-term solution to the position. But for now, the intermediary between the two eras is Matt Moore, who gave the offense a spark in the five games he started at the end of the 2009 season. Given Moore’s ability to effectively get the ball to Steve Smith, he will begin the season as the team’s starting quarterback. However, Moore’s fundamentals and decision-making are flawed, making him a placeholder to when the coaching staff feels Clausen is ready to take over.

Defense

The Panthers will bring a rather inexperienced defensive line into the start of the 2010 season. Excluding right end Tyler Brayton, the other three starters have only accounted for 12 combined starts over the past two seasons. But look for John Fox to employ a loose rotation, as backup defensive tackles Tank Tyler and Nick Hayden are every bit as capable as starters Louis Leonard and Ed Johnson. An additional problem the Panthers’ front seven faces is the fact that star linebacker Thomas Davis will miss the entire season due to an injured right knee. Replacing Davis is virtually impossible, as he recorded 113 total tackles in 2008 and was on pace to exceed that mark in 2009. The Panthers’ defensive backs aren’t exactly the flashiest in the league, but they can always be counted on to hold their own against opposing wideouts. Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall at cornerback are very steady performers and should ensure that the Panthers’ pass defense finish in the top 15 for the second straight year.

Fantasy sleeper: Brandon LaFell
LaFell is only a rookie, but he has impressed the coaching staff throughout training camp. If Dwayne Jarrett gets off to a slow start, LaFell would most likely supplant him as the second starting receiver and could end up producing solid numbers.

Biggest question for the 2010 Panthers: At what point in the season will Jimmy Clausen be given the chance to take over as the starting quarterback?

Season Prediction: 5-11, 4th NFC South