Who You Got?: Kevin Kolb vs. Alex Smith
TweetAuthor Robert Klimowicz will be defending Kolb.
Author Ian Price will be defending Smith.
Kevin Kolb vs. Alex Smith
Kolb
Not many quarterbacks will be under more scrutiny this season than Kevin Kolb. Taking over for Donovan McNabb, Kolb will have high expectations. He showed promise of what he can do in his two back-to-back 300+ yard games against New Orleans and Kansas City. He amassed 5 TD (1 rushing) in those two games. Kolb will have plenty of opportunities too; Philadelphia threw 60% of the time, and TE Brent Celek, Kolb’s roommate on the road, ranked second among the position in targets inside the 10 and inside the 5 yard line. Celek is just one of the weapons Kolb has; DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin round out his arsenal. The Eagles schedule favors Kolb over Smith. Philadelphia plays pass vulnerable defenses in Detroit (most fantasy points allowed to QBs in ’09), Jacksonville (5th-most), Atlanta (6th-most), Tennessee (2nd-most), Chicago (9th-most), Minnesota (11th-most) and the New York Giants twice (4th-most). Meanwhile, San Francisco has non-fantasy friendly match-ups against some of the best fantasy pass defenses in Denver (4th-best defense against QBs in ’09), Carolina (3rd best), and San Diego (13th-best). Head Coach Andy Reid also runs a West Coast-style offense that is predicated on accuracy, a trait that Kolb has as evidenced by his 65% completion percentage last season. Out of all the young quarterbacks this season, it is clear that Kolb will provide the greatest upside and his floor is higher than that of Smith. Philadelphia’s average defense may allow Kolb and the offense some opportunities for late heroics, further adding to his fantasy value. This season, Kevin Kolb could be the quarterback steal of fantasy drafts. A season of 3500+ yards, and 25 TD is well within the realm of possibility.
Smith
Instead of focusing on why I think Alex Smith will have a more productive year (my take on Smith can be read here), I will focus on some of the drawbacks regarding Kevin Kolb’s situation in 2010. Many Kolb supporters like to point to the two games in which he threw for 300+ yards while filling in for the injured McNabb in 2009. Those totals aren’t as impressive as they look on paper, as they came against the 26th and 22nd rated pass defenses, respectively, in the Saints and Chiefs. Additionally, it is rarely noted that Kolb threw three interceptions in the game against the Saints, so his decision-making clearly isn’t as developed as some make it out to be. Another factor that will affect Kolb’s performance is the fact that DeSean Jackson is due for a down year. Historically, speed receivers such as Jackson have had trouble replicating breakout seasons that they enjoy early on in their careers. Jackson is a one-dimensional receiver that lacks the courage to catch passes over the middle and that can be schemed against, essentially neutralizing his presence on the field. What this debate ultimately comes down to, however, is value. In the case of Kolb, he is a first-year starter that you are going to have to pick as your #1 quarterback. On the other hand, Smith will fall to the late rounds in most drafts where you will be able to take him as your backup with the potential of him being a starter in the long run. Overall, Alex Smith plays behind the better offensive line and has a more diverse set of talent around him, making him the safer pick among the two. You just don’t know what you’re going to get with Kevin Kolb.
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